Over the last decade, electricity demand across the US has been relatively flat [1-3]. But three major trends have altered this path of relative energy supply and demand parity: the emergence of high-density mega data centers that support the new wave of AI applications, the prioritization of national re-industrialization (the push to bring manufacturing back to the shores of the US), and the slow but definite rise of electric vehicles (EV) in the US stock. All these trends are driving growth in electrification at a pace unknown until now.
The US is entering a new super cycle of electrification, with electricity demand growing at approximately 5 times the pace of the last decade, and with a potential of 1,000TWh in additional demand over the next 10 years.
As a testament to this new paradigm, the Energy Information Administration has increased its long-term energy demand forecast by 25% in just one year [1]. Such rapid growth poses a critical challenge on the supply side. Concerns arise as to whether US economy influencers ̶ be they data centers, industrial facilities, or households ̶ ̶ can access the affordable and resilient power they need.
Having recently attended both the BNEF summit in New York City and the CeraWeek 2025 conference in Houston, Texas, it is evident that corporate energy strategies are shifting to accommodate these new marketplace realities. Many conference attendees were asking the questions “What will happen next, and what solutions will support our quest for more electricity access?”
At the Sustainability Research Institute (SRI), our engineers and scientists collaborate with academics, national laboratories, NGOs, and industry coalitions to actively research and advocate on the future of energy.
The race to access affordable power
So, what happens next?
One possible outcome is a restriction on where organizations build their new data centers or factories due to local shortages of insufficient power supply. It currently takes up to a decade to build transmission line infrastructure, and up to 3-5 years to connect an asset onto the grid ̶ a “queue time” or “time to power” which has increased 70% over the last decade. [4-6 ] Alphastruxure, a Schneider Electric joint venture with Carlyle that specializes in Energy as a Service solutions, recently conducted a survey of US data centers. It shows that 92% of respondents report utility capacity as their primary obstacle to building new facilities, with 44% of data center organizations waiting at least 4 years to access the power grid. [7]
To be clear, this scenario is not a positive development. Such limits to infrastructure access place US economic development at risk. There is one alternative, however, that can help reverse this trend: behind-the-meter (BTM) generation. In this scenario, the demand side develops its own energy sources and forms private partnerships with firms that can help it become more energy independent. We at SRI see this as a highly likely development in the coming years, and one that was heavily discussed at the two conferences I mentioned above.
Besides power, benefits include high speed and low costs
BTM generation not only brings new capacity online in a fraction of the time it takes to expand the grid, but it also saves money. SRI research [8] reveals that up to 50% of energy bills can be reduced with attractive investment returns across most building types in the US. The same scenario can occur across industries (SRI has published unique insights regarding the electrification of the Ammonia and Steel industries).
When combined with local energy storage, BTM generation enables buildings and facilities to control the power they consume from the grid and to consume when electricity is at its most affordable rate, reducing overall energy cost. Additionally, on a large scale, stakeholders can mitigate the demand for new capacity, optimizing the infrastructure and reducing the need for peak power [9].
Not a short-term fix, but a long-term restructuring of the power system
BTM generation (and storage) is much more than a short-term fix. It’s a fundamental transformation toward more affordable energy, and a more resilient and efficient power system.
In the race to access affordable power, off-grid solutions may emerge, but as they connect to the grid over time, they will fundamentally reshape the power system in ways that are still difficult to fully anticipate.
Consider the expansion of rooftop solar as an example. Most stakeholders have overlooked the vast potential of rooftop PV. PV panels, by their nature, are distributed solutions. They can be deployed anywhere close to where demand for electricity exists. Rooftop PV is as pervasive as electricity itself. In the US alone, SRI [10] conservatively estimates that up to 40% of current electricity could be provided by rooftop PV.
What would the world be like if PV panels populated building rooftops, parking lot canopies, and unused land parcels? Very possibly, it could be a world where easy local energy access would allow prosperity to thrive at all societal levels.
To understand how rooftop PV can address the speed and cost challenges discussed above, consider Pakistan’s recent example. With a population of 200 million people, Pakistan possesses an energy capacity of only 40 Gigawatts (GW). Compare that figure to the US, which has 1,300 GW of power to support 350 million people.
In 2024, the country deployed nearly 20GW of solar panels (mostly rooftop) or a 50% increase of the country’s total capacity in one single year! The rationale was to access a cheap alternative to energize their homes and to access it rapidly [11]. Such a rapid change has not been seen in the history of power systems.
The bottom line, even if the situation of both countries cannot be compared, is that rooftop solar has emerged as a key breakthrough technology to watch. It will likely play a major role worldwide and in the US and continue to surprise us.
Preparing for the electrification super cycle
To learn more about how current technologies can help to address the electricity demand vs supply imbalance, access the Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) white paper library or visit the AlphaStruxure website.
Works Cited
- Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook. 2025.
- BloombergNEF, New Energy Outlook. 2024: BloombergNEF.
- BloombergNEF, New Energy Outlook. 2025: BloombergNEF.
- McDevitt-Galles, J., et al., Waiting in Queue: RMI’s Solutions to the Gridlocked US Power Sector. 2024: Rocky Mountain Institute.
- Berkeley Lab, Grid Connection Barriers To New-Build Power Plants In the United States. 2025: Energy Markets and Policy. Berkeley Lab.
- OECD/IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives. International Energy Agency. 2023.
- Alphastruxure, Before AI. After AI. Surveying the Data Center Industry as It Enters a New Age of Constrained Energy Supply. 2025: Alphastruxure.
- Minier, V., Towards net-zero buildings: The investment case. 2025: Schneider ElectricTM Sustainability Research Institute.
- Norris, T.H., et al., Rethinking Load Growth. Assessing the Potential for Integration of Large Flexible Loads in US Power Systems. 2024, Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University: Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University.
- Petit, V., The unexpected disruption: Distributed generation. 2022, Schneider ElectricTM Sustainability Research Institute: Schneider ElectricTM Sustainability Research Institute.
- Mishra, S., How Pakistan quietly became world’s biggest solar importer, in The Independent. 2025: The Independent.
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